Retirement Security Projection Model

Retirement Security Projection Model® is used to model the expected retirement income derived from Social Security and retirement plans for birth cohorts from 1936-1965 with results broken out by gender and family status. This is combined with a hybrid model for analyzing retiree expenditures: stochastic for some expenditures (e.g., home health care and nursing facilities) and deterministic for others (e.g., housing and food). This results in a tool capable of analyzing the retirement income adequacy of various demographic groups under baseline assumptions as well as various policy scenarios. Studies using the model are presented.

"'Short' Falls: Who's Most Likely to Come up Short in Retirement, and When?" [June 2014, EBRI Notes, Vol. 35, No. 6]

"What Causes EBRI Retirement Readiness Ratings to Vary: Results from the 2014 Retirement Security Projection Model" [February 2014, EBRI Issue Brief #396]

"The Role of Social Security, Defined Benefits, and Private Retirement Accounts in the Face of the Retirement Crisis" [January 2014, EBRI Notes, Vol. 35, No. 1]

"How Much Would it Take? Achieving Retirement Income Equivalency between Final-Average-Pay Defined Benefit Plan Accruals and Voluntary Enrollment 401(k) Plans in the Private Sector" [December 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 12]

"Reality Checks: A Comparative Analysis of Future Benefits from Private-Sector, Voluntary-Enrollment 401(k) Plans vs. Stylized, Final-Average-Pay Defined Benefit and Cash Balance Plans" [June 2013, EBRI Issue Brief #387]

"What a Sustained Low-yield Rate Environment Means for Retirement Income Adequacy: Results from the 2013 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model" [June 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 6]

"A Little Help: The Impact of On-line Calculators and Financial Advisors on Setting Adequate Retirement-Savings Targets: Evidence from the 2013 Retirement Confidence Survey" [March 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 3]

"All or Nothing? An Expanded Perspective on Retirement Readiness" [November 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 11]

"Increasing Default Deferral Rates in Automatic Enrollment 401(k) Plans: The Impact on Retirement Savings Success in Plans With Automatic Escalation" [September 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 9]

"Is Working to Age 70 Really the Answer for Retirement Income Adequacy?" [August 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 8]

"Retirement Readiness Ratings and Retirement Savings Shortfalls for Gen Xers: The Impact of Eligibility for Participation in a 401(k) Plan" [June 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 6]

"Retirement Income Adequacy for Boomers and Gen Xers: Evidence from the 2012 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model" [May 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 5]

"Modifying the Federal Tax Treatment of 401(k) Plan Contributions: Projected Impact on Participant Account Balances" [March 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 3]

"Tax Reform Options: Promoting Retirement Security" [November 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #364]

"The Importance of Defined Benefit Plans for Retirement Income Adequacy" [August 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 8]

"Capping Tax-Preferred Retirement Contributions: Preliminary Evidence of the Impact of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Recommendations" [July 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 7]

"The Impact of Deferring Retirement Age on Retirement Income Adequacy" [June 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #358]

"Retirement Income Adequacy: Alternative Thresholds and the Importance of Future Eligibility in Defined Contribution Retirement Plans" [April 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 4]

"A Post-Crisis Assessment of Retirement Income Adequacy for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers" [February 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #354]

"The Impact of Auto-enrollment and Automatic Contribution Escalation on Retirement Income Adequacy" [November 2010, EBRI Issue Brief #349]

"Retirement Savings Shortfalls for Today's Workers" [October 2010, EBRI Notes, Vol. 31, No. 10]

"Retirement Income Adequacy for Today's Workers: How Certain, How Much Will It Cost, and How Does Eligibility for Participation in a Defined Contribution Plan Help?" [September 2010, EBRI Notes, Vol. 31, No. 9]

"The EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating:™ Retirement Income Preparation and Future Prospects" [July 2010, EBRI Issue Brief #344]

"Measuring Retirement Income Adequacy: Calculating Realistic Income Replacement Rates" [September 2006, EBRI Issue Brief #297]

"Americans’ Future Retirement Security: Implications of the EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Projection Model" [February 2004, EBRI Issue Brief #266]

"Can America Afford Tomorrow’s Retirees: Results From the EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Projection Model" [November 2003, EBRI Issue Brief #263]

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