July 20, 2018 At a Glance Current Population Survey: Approach Retirement Plan Participation and Retiree Income Estimates with Care The Annual Social and Economic the IRS for similar income that year. After salary workers at establishments with 500 Supplement to the Current Population the redesign, the total retiree income or more employees participating in an Survey (CPS), conducted by the U.S. Census increased to $350.20 billion. In other employment-based retirement plan was Bureau, is one of the most-cited sources words, the traditional design CPS number 64%, compared with 58% under the of income data for those ages 65 or older. was 32.3% of the IRS number, while the redesign. This percentage participating has In 2014, with the intent of improving the redesigned number was 40.5%. The continued to decline reaching 47% in amount of retiree income captured within aggregate CPS numbers have continued to 2016. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor the CPS, the survey underwent a redesign. grow relative to the IRS numbers, with the Statistics’ National Compensation Survey However, EBRI’s analysis of the survey 2015 CPS total reaching 62.5% of the (NCS) has shown that participation by after the redesign shows that the estimates 2015 IRS number ($595.12 billion versus the same group has remained flat between of the percentage of workers who partici- $951.50 billion). This is clearly still less 2013 and 2016 at 76%. pate in employment-based retirement than the IRS level, but it is closer than under The bottom line is that policymakers, plans should be approached with care. the traditional design. pundits, and the industry should approach The goal of capturing more income At the same time, the redesign has the CPS numbers with care. Based on the was partially successful. Under the affected CPS estimates of the percentage CPS estimates alone, it is risky to conclude traditional CPS survey design in 2013, an of employees participating in employ- that retirement plan participation is aggregate amount of $279.92 billion in ment-based retirement plans. In 2013, the waning, particularly when contradictory 1 retiree income was estimated. This was traditional CPS survey showed that the evidence exists. well below the $865.5 billion reported to percentage of private-sector wage and Comparison of Retiree Income from the Current Population Survey Estimates of Employees Participating in Employment-Based and Retiree Income from IRS Tax Data, 2013-2016 (in billions of Retirement Plans: Current Population Survey vs National nominal dollars) Compensation Survey 77% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% $951.50 $909.72 $865.50 64% 63% 63% $622.16 $595.12 $559.04 58% 55% $350.20 50% $279.92 47% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IRS CPS Redesigned CPS Traditional CPS Traditional CPS Redesigned BLS-NCS 1 Retiree income is defined as pension/annuity income including DC plan and IRA withdrawals. Also, survivor and disability income in CPS is included, as some of that income is categorized as pension/ annuity income by the IRS. The IRS comparison number includes pension/annuity income plus taxable DC and IRA distributions. “Curr ent Population Survey: Issues Continue for Retirement Plan Participation and Retiree Income Estimates,” EBRI Issue Brief, no. 452 (Employee Benefit Research Institute, June 12, 2018).