Retirement Security Projection Model®

EBRI's Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM) simulates the percentage of the U.S. population at risk of falling short of the retirement income needed to cover average expenses and uninsured health care costs in retirement (including long-term-care costs).

EBRI’s RSPM® examines:

  • Specific income and age groupings.
  • The likely number of years before those at risk run short of money in retirement.
  • Additional savings necessary to have a 50, 70, or 90 percent probability of retirement income adequacy.

EBRI’s RSPM® began as a major project to provide retirement income adequacy measurement in the late 1990s for three states concerned with whether their residents would have sufficient income when they reached retirement age. EBRI developed a national model in 2003 — EBRI's RSPM.® It was updated in 2010 to incorporate several significant changes, including the impacts of defined benefit (DB) plan freezes, automatic enrollment provisions for 401(k) plans, and the 2007–2009 crises in the financial and housing markets. Since then, EBRI has continued to update RSPM® for changes in financial and real estate market conditions, as well as for underlying demographic changes and changes in 401(k) participant behavior (based on a database of the actual, anonymized account activity of tens of millions of 401(k) participants). 

For more about EBRI’s RSPM,® click here.

RSPM Publications