ISSUE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, most states issued lockdown orders that closed many workplaces. The ensuing job losses may have left millions of workers without employer health coverage.
GOAL: To estimate how many workers lost jobs that came with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) — by industry, age, and gender — during the pandemic.
METHODS: Health insurance coverage data were used to generate the proportion of workers with ESI, by various characteristics. Data on unemployment benefit recipients were used to generate the proportion of workers who lost jobs because of the pandemic. We apply the proportion of workers with ESI to the number of workers who lost jobs to obtain an estimate of jobs with ESI coverage that were lost. We also determine the number of dependents of these workers who potentially lost coverage.
KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: We estimate that as many as 7.7 million workers lost jobs with ESI as of June 2020 because of the pandemic-induced recession. The ESI of these workers covered 6.9 million of their dependents, for a total of 14.6 million affected individuals. Only with time will we know how many job losses are ultimately permanent, resulting in loss of ESI for workers and their dependents.
H H H H H H H H H H T H T T Hh h h o o o o o o o o o o o oe C e C e C w M w M w M w M w M w M w M w M w M w M w M w M o o oa a a a a a a a a a a a m m m n n n n n n n n n n n nm m m y A y A y A y A y A y A y A y A y A y A y A y A o o om m m m m m m m m m m m n n nw w w e e e e e e e e e e e ee e e r r r r r r r r r r r ri i i i i i i i i i i ia a a c c c c c c c c c c c cl l la a a a a a a a a a a a t t th F h F h F ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H ns H u u un n n a a a a a a a a a a a av v v v v v v v v v v v d d d e L e L e L e L e L e L e L e L e L e L e L e L o o o o o o o o o o o os s s s s s s s s s s st J t J t J t J t J t J t J t J t J t J t J t Jo o o o o o o o o o o ob b b b b b b b b b b bs w s w s w s w s w s w s w s w s w s w s w s wi i i i i i i i i i i it t t t t t t t t t t th E h E h E h E h E h E h E h E h E h E h E h Em m m m m m m m m m m mp p p p p p p p p p p pl l l l l l l l l l l lo o o o o o o o o o o oy y y y y y y y y y y ye e e e e e e e e e e er H r H r H r H r H r H r H r H r H r H r H r He e e e e e e e e e e ea a a a a a a a a a a al l l l l l l l l l l lt t t t t t t t t t t th C h C h C h C h C h C h C h C h C h C h C h Co o o o o o o o o o o ov v v v v v v v v v v ve e e e e e e e e e e eH H H r r r r r r r r r r r ra a a a a a a a a a a a o o o g g g g g g g g g g g gw H w H w H e D e D e D e D e D e D e D e D e D e D e D e Du u u u u u u u u u u u i i ig g g r r r r r r r r r r r rh I h I h I i i i i i i i i i i i in n n n n n n n n n n ng t g t g t g t g t g t g t g t g t g t g t g t s A s A s A h h h h h h h h h h h hm m m e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e P e e ea a a a a a a a a a a a r r ri i in n n n n n n n n n n n c c cd d d d d d d d d d d d a a ae e e e e e e e e e e e ’ ’ ’s H s H s H m m m m m m m m m m m mi i i i i i i i i i i ie e e c c c c c c c c c c c c? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? a a a l l lt t th C h C h Ca a ar r re C e C e Co o os s st B t B t Bu u ur r rd d de e en n n? ? ? 1101312 111 0 9 164398725 ISSUE BRIEF October 2020 I N U U In t n c n s eia c h n o er ri g d n ly 3 s i t ta r sa a i s .n t 3 m u sa o t ly a e b , jo n n ir l lb l l i se io s o f e o , w n w w u s u sr e u e r o s i n o r s u em k n a e a c n er d p c s i s c lo o o n a m y m m b c m i c en n o o a m d t i ti a o m n tn o is o o u n a d r f h a atn n i e o c d f an a e c lto h i l o n an d d im sua rn an ts c , e T M t w h h o a e e p r in sk e a er ta an g s i in e g dem n J in ro u g iu n C cp - e r o s w . B e v la er u t er t b e a d l e t g ee c o h a D c e m u k u s d e o r o o in w sn t l g n ly 4 T is s k em ee 0 p ly t ver per o b o er ly a car en e c y ff t o o J e v o c f w er b te i L d c n oo r g k s er er sts i ain n E I A A NO AP N S B p T I C p P O TE R e E U o OD n ND S v T d e TH i UC rIX x E ag E .T e L S x A Ih ON T U o iR b s THO E s b it A Ny G G 1 R T . P S e H n e S d r ,e L cr e IM ntIa Tg A e of W TIONS o,r AND kers w CO itM h E P A TARI h m CK e E pN S l S I c o O O y o W N e ver r S L - WI a E S g DG p e r o Ta n H M ts e o O E oN f i r Te HE n T d I d S iv R n id S su u T ar UD ls w anIE c ho l e i So n T st jo hb e s b ir O eca w un se Exhibit 2. Summary of Findings c N t sh er oa e E vv er m ic c a e e o g s w , a n e d on m er atd T a a e f ic P a n y r o o d s p liu c e of C ty I t o ate n f p -l se tr v io o te u p v l d t o e e e r a r t ta i a o s o t g n t im e n t , M o em ah te e c a s t r h p h c a lo a r h 2 y t 1 ac m t 6 er 0 en .2 m 1 is t9 t . ii cls o liofn i sn pd ou us st e rs a ies a nd o nd g thr er de oups o pen f w den ort k ser . Is n c , w o h nit lr e l as eta , w vin og o rker th s ers food services (30% of the industry’s woH rk OW W force) b E C ec O aN mD e UCTED T of t H h Ie p S S aT nU dem DYic (48%) is somewhat less than the ESI estimates of the number of retail trade had ESI prepandemic, these workers accounted 1. For comparison, between mid-March and the end A C c o o m ver m a o g n e u we n a der t lth F h u e C nd s Au Rr E v S A ey o ctf n . Oe u a r e rly 2 sti, m 30 a0 a tes a du ls lt o s Paul Fronstin, Ph.D., is director of the Health Research The authors thank the Commonwealth Fund’s Sara I E n r xh e is b p it 6 s onse t ho o t ws t he C haO t t V hIe a D-1 d9 p ver a sn e e dem ffec ic ts o , mf t os h t s e p taa te n sdem ic We believe that use of the Labor Department’s monthly likely to be a major problem in this context because the 15 w Alo th rk oer ug s l h a os ct E coS uI a nts o ing f f e o a r o rly M nly 7 p ay 2 er 02 c0 en . t o Th f p is s ret p u a d n y d dem id n ic ot y vo iru tu na gl er t ly u hn at n a oug ce 2 hed 5 a . A ns a r d ag e e 6 su5 a lt, w nd o e w lo der a uld e cc x o p u en ct t t ed he u un nem emp pl lo oy ym ed b ene t b tw en ee en F fit re eb cr ip uia en ry a ts t n o e d J s u ti n m e 2 at0 e h 20 o . H w m ow a e n vy er , coverage rate of workers overall (51%) (Exhibit 4). This is The data for this study come f f ao g r r o e 1 o d m t o n n 8 a ly 1 w o n o s t a d o 2 p o cu l c er der f rc ou e cen s n . D o t f t o u a o n tr t a o f l d t h o n h h e f st j ae a to , o a cb lt t tf w h i s w hn a o s t i iu r th E k n ra er d ni S c s w v e c I a idh n o uo h v d 1 a e lr s w a 1 p ag d l e c h er o o l o s c m t j o en s e o t t o b sf i a n n d d E o iv f J id d u u u n c a e 2 a ls w ti 0 o 1 n P 9 h, t o h r h o er a g v e w re l am a o er st a e 3 t t n h .3 m y e E m illp io lo n n yee e B w c en lae im fit R s fo es re arch Collins, David Blumenthal, Elizabeth Fowler, and N i rs es u c u m ee sd l b sier o o n f o ck f e d w lo l d o w r ik n o sp er rr s o der e po m s t rpl tih o o a n y t c ed atle o p ly o se rep d m n w an ao d nm em y w en io c . A r , F kp l eb tlh ar o cu e u a s a g rh y n 2 d0 20 151.7 million “Characteristics of the Unemployment Insurance rates of claiming have been extremely high during the Percent with H em esti p m lo o a y tm e tw M en he n t, 2 u 0 p mb er er o ca enf de t on f u pen ny A em den pl to s l yo em d w fs ri o n m g c o tr he k oe er v 2 er s i 0ri 1 an J 9 g A eu .nn c ne uala Socn ial f n an o us H r d m d E i b s c er o p or n o o p f p m oa ie r ct o Supp ip ov l n e l ale L t o e e m s ly s ie nn g j m t to o ab t ll s o he s w h C a is ur t rh E ers o et n St f l I t Po o o v s pul t j ao a rtb y g io s w nr Sur eia tt h E v ly b ey S I y workers have lost jobs with ESI following the recent surge of because workers employed in two of the three industries only 25 percent of workers in that industry had ESI witem h Ep Sl I d oy u m rien ng t t-b ha e p sea d h ndem ealth i ic, m nso ur re t anh ce m an h aa y b lf h e a ad b ble t een o s ign Insu tin tu em te ( pE lo B y R m I)en . EB t b Ren I is a p efitsr ; a iv n ad d te, n ur o in np g t ro hfi e fi t, n rso t 1 np 5 w are tie sk as n Christopher Hollander for valuable feedback. potential ESI coverage loss including dependents. health insurance coverage as a women made up 47 percent of prepandemic employment, dramatically slowed U.S. economic activity in the spring of Claimants” report is a strength of the analysis because pandemic. The reasons for the unusually high claim coverage in Employee- Employee-plus- Family (CPS). The CPS is a primary source of labor force statistics for the U.S. population and is were former accommodation and food service workers. b in ed cu au sts re o y, a f t nh d p eir r ose sl ia bt ly b ively l y oo th w r er c at h ea s o raf E cter SI c ist o iv cer s, s au gc eh a . s age most affected by lockdowns — accommodation and food u pn re em pap nl dem oymien c, s to o , ann d b ly 7 p reak t erc h en at n t o u f a mc b c er d omo m w on b dat y i ion n a du n sd try, tem u p p f or o a r i rit t ly l ha ri o d o ugff o h an r f o u th rler f oug ah m ei d a ly m nd s em tib ll h er.ad ESI through N or u gmbe o af t nih ze 2 r a o ti0 f o u 0 n c 7 ne –o 2 mp m 00 m 9 r lo it y e te c ee d d t s w si o o o or nk r , t e ig h ris er n , J a e w u l p ne er ub 2 e 5. l0 ic p 2 2 m 0oli ic lly r ion n ese e a w rc h 17.9 million result of lost ESI. As discussed own name only coverage one coverage coverage Other studies estimate both the number of workers t it a hel y a low ccs u ous t nto r ed f eo lia r 5 b5 p ly o er bc sen erv t o e t f t ho e c tah l j ao c rb l a oc sp t o er o sn sis e so s tre i . B cd b su t y the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In March 2020. The result was a massive increase in unemployment, rates include the additional $600 per week provided to But because only 25 percent of these workers had ESI and gender. 3 E ser xh viib ce it 4 s s, an hd r ow es f tau il t rtr h aer de de — w tail o ere l n t e h se p s lik ae nly t dem ha ic n a - verage to age, and gender. We also examine how many of these food service workers lost jobs with ESI as a result of the employer. This makes sense because temporarily and e ben du efi ct c atilo an o ims n e . conomic security and employee 2019, the CPS interviewed nearly 95,000 households, covering 180,000 individuals. The lJ oso ing E b SI as nd t w he nui mth ber of de E pen m dentp s. A K lao iser F y aer mily H The c e ase o a f w lth orkers y C oungo er tv han 2 er 5 is sa trikg ing b e ec ause, e oa f w rlio er r, a ker n U s w rb h ao h n In av st e l itu ot se t t heir jobs since the start 8. See Appendix Exhibit A1 for data on the percentage because women were somewhat less likely than men unemployment insurance recipients under the CARES which peaked in April at 14.7 percent. During the 15 weeks prepandemic, they accounted for only 11 percent of lost Number of unemployed workers because of pandemic, June 20 h Ed 2 av i 0 te E oriS a I c l so uv p er po ar gt w e (E ax s p hi r b ov it 3 id )e . W d b o y L rker au s i 1 ra H 5 n m .9 m ea gn w ill u e ifr o a .n cturing — w T o otal rkers’ dependents may have lost coverage. 51% related incre 55% ase in unemploy19% ment by industry25% , along shutdowns. In contrast, far fewer manufacturing workers laid-off workers remain attached to their employer, and the benefits. He is also director of the Institute’s Health March CPS collects information on health insurance coverage for both the prior calendar Foundation study estimates that as of May 2020, nearly although they accounted for 12 percent of prepandemic of the pandemic-related lockdowns. The monthly of workers with health coverage through their own Act through July 25, 2020, and the likelihood that s 2t . uA dy e uth so tir m s’ e ats e td t imh aa te t r s o ou f t g h h e 2 ly 019 Annual Social and to have health coverage through their own job, and less f jo ro bm m s wit id- h E M Sa I a rc n h t d 1 o t 0 p he en ercen d o t o f Jf p uno et , A en m tia er l E icS aI c ns fi ov ler ed n age l eao rly ss the third industry heavily affected by the lockdowns — year and at the time the survey is fielded. Data on whether workers had employee-only, employer has an interest in the continued health and future l R o e ss t j ea or b cs f h a on lld E owd in u g t cah tie p on P an rdem ograim c ( . D abr o . F ur t 1 on .6 m stin il ’s r lio e n s, o ear 1 rch 0% with the percentage of workers in each industry who Industry ESI Coverage Loss by Industry 27 million workers and dependents lost ESI and became employment and for 16 percent of unemployed workers, unemployment insurance characteristics report is employer. recently laid-off workers are lower-wage workers who Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Unemployed workers as a percentage of prepandemic employment 10% a t likh ely t ird o o h f ta h v o e f se w amh ily c o lo o sv e E erS aI g e, they and their depen 1 dents when dependents are included. employee-plus-one, or family coverage are also available. were more likely than average to have ESI coverage. 49 million new claims for unemployment benefits. During the Pandemic pro? ductivity of these workers. i o n f em terep st lo s i yn m cl en ude t t in t ren he i ds i nd n em ustry p) l. B oyu m t b en et c -a bu as se t ed h wo ea -tlh th irds Agricultur 16e/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting 27%became unem 52% ployed, the perc 26% entage of worker21% s with F un IND insur IN eG d.S Another 19 million lost ESI but were able to they represented only 7 percent of lost jobs with ESI, and preferable to the monthly Current Population Survey The seven industries shown in Exhibit 3 accounted for are more likely to claim benefits, even absent the $600 accounted for slightly more than half of all lost jobs with coverage through pandemic- Data on unemployed worke9 rs c . S oe me e f Ar p op m “ en C d h ia x E rac x te hriib st iit A cs of t 1 fo hr d e U a n te a o mn t ploh ym e p ent I ercn en sutra ag ne o ce f b 3.en Se afi ra R ts, c . C on os ll u in m s e er t a -dlr ., iv A en h n Eae ra ly L lth b ooen k ae t t fih ts e P , th ot e u enn tii a n l sured, of manufacturing workers had ESI coverage prepandemic, Mining 72%prepandemi40% c ESI coverage, an27% d the percentage o 34% f those s Sw im it ic la h t rly o a j , ret o a b il t -br a a sde a ed p clc a o n t un h tr eo d f ug oh a f r 10 p am eric ly m ent o em f ber. only 5 percent of potential ESI coverage loss including N (C u P m S) h beo r o us f w eho orlk d s era s w mp hl o l e b oe sc t j ao ub ss w e it i its s h E o m SI, F ue ch l bru aa rg ry er – June 2020 av t T Fw o hr m o es e -t e e rh o aige r s re i t d im s o nf a f p o te rma s o rep f l t a io n os dem n a t jo b b o ic em s w ut t it h p h E is b loy SI a r m ie 7 en n f., p d de 7 t m , 6 le9 p ill as pen ie c o er n den c o en nt t t s act: per week CARES add-on. Exhibit 1 shows that, between February and June 2020, The strong link between employment and health insurance Claimants,” a monthly report published by the Employment and Training Administration ESI and potential ESI coverage loss when dependents were workers with employee-only, employee-plus-one, and r re el ta ir te ee h d jo eb l alt o h b ss w en ie ll b fite s, em comp el oyee benefits and taxation, the s Im ap m lie p catr io op ns o ort f t io hn ( e C 7 O % V ) o ID f a -1 l9 P l m a a n n d u efm ac ic f tuo ri r H ng w eal o th rk ers Utilities 76% 42% 24% 35% 12 prepandemic employment and 14 percent of unemployed Pa w de o u p rlen k F er rden o s w nst th i sn . O o l , Ph o ns ly o .t j D.on be i s w n fiv ith E e o SI f t . hese younger workers and because it is based on administrative records c L oo f u o v s er n in em eg E d b pS y t lo I W y h ee j d w he on L b l oro k a s er y er o s i s d ff n J s B o n un e o co e t i , a m m np d 6 e P ly t 8 p eh ra m er t 1 a c4 en n.e 6 m t o ntf l ilo lis ot n of the U.S. Department of Labor. These monthly characteristics reports have rarely if the number of unemployed individuals increased by coverage has important implications for Americans’ family coverage. Health Management Associates estimates that between a inc nd p lud ub ed l.ic opinion about health care. He currently serves Insurance Coverage (Commonwealth Fund, June 2020). l u o n si t j no su br s w ed. W ith E e c Sa I a ut s a r ione , sult of the shutdowns. Second, although the CPS provides the proportion of Number of dependents covered by lost jobs with ESI, February–June 2020 average 6.9 million Construction 41%Director, Heal 52% th Research and E 18% ducation Program 30% ever been used in research a h n ad s d E hS oI t uld n hro ou t b ge c h to h n ei fu r j se o d w b, a itn h t d o he f na ly 1 mil4 p iar “er Un ce en mt p plor yo m ve ide nt d maintained by the states. The CPS interviews about j io nb ds w ivid iu th E als h SI. T avh e l e d osit E spS aI o ritr b ies a ecm om on e u g tn hie n ss e i ur n ed d d usu tr riie n s g 15.9 million (from 2.0 million to 17.9 million). This is a At the outset of the recession in April, nearly 18.2 million Paul Fronstin Stephen A. Woodbury insurance coverage and access to health care. Employer- 12 million and 35 million people could lose ESI, on the steering committee for the Emeriti Retirement Insurance Claims Report” (oE r “ S w I- e c e o kv ly c erle ad w ims re or p k o er rts b ”). Ty i he w n 9 d eu es kt ly c ry a lain m d b s re y dem port is a b ogr aa re p -hic Employee Benefit Research Institute however, about the difficulties Manufacturing 66%10 co.v C er oa ll g ie f ns e or a de t a 50% l., An pen Ea den rly L t.ook,22% 2020. 28% 60,000 households per month, though in some months i tn t he p ota an l j dem ob lo ics. R s v a er th ser us l , to hs es o y rf j ep o rb es w seni t a th E n u SI a pprer e s -b tr o iu kn in d g. Director, Health Research and Education Program Professor of Economics, Michigan State University 4. The labor market data in this paragraph come from “The of the 23.1 million workers who were unemployed were reasonable estimate of the job loss resulting from the although as the Urban Institute review points out, T s E H p o x e o thi a a n ll a t s b h P o i ff r t 4 e e r d h c o. P t g e r e d b a a am n lty j h i d . D e o n r mi b s . F s l ur r c o o a-s n n R t w c se t e ( ila n h it E h E t Se a I) i d In s t Ss t I ( es w h t cr e m i o fi r e b e k o a d b e o n s r s e s a t c e s re es i fo o n m p r d d n U e C o m rt t e o o n p h n f n e e ag t p n m o rd e r rm p o e ss v nt l io ds y e, F s s m e im e bn p ru lt a e w arn y e– e d P k Ju ly c n e e 2 o ru cnt e 02 s of t n0 av tag he n e ers o a u ge m f W b ) er of i ork ne itir a 1 s W l a 4n .6 d c h m o L oill nti io n ou s n e t J d obs 11 f grr on ou sp tin , o ? ue r a brn i.or aly gsis assumes that the proportion Employee Benefit Research Institute Senior Economist, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Wholesale trade 59% 52% 20% 28% i tn m he sa ak m in pg s le i us m ch e u sc th l ima ar tg eer s. . The data must be weighted e Fs otr e im x a a tm e o pf E le, t SI l ot o as l j se o s b b le oc sa su es i se t n m he o an n u ly a facv tu ai rlia n b g w le e er ste imate CONCLUSION ESE I C mo pv lo e yr m ag en e L t So its us b atio y A n — A geugust 2020,” news release, temporarily laid off or furloughed and expected to be pandemic, and it represents 10 percent of prepandemic unemployment insurance c11 laim . B an an ts t in hi e n e ac t a h s l.t, a C te h . I a n n c go en s i trn H ast, t ea he lt c hh , 2 ar 0 ac 20 te . ristics report is the data and methods behind this range of estimates Workers age 65 and older accounted for only 6 percent of numerous times and has appeared before many groups with ESI, by Industry of health insurance in the United States. In March 2019, 69 of workers who lost jobs in each industry and Note: ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. to o Rb etail tr tain n ade ational estimates. These estimates may 40%roughly prop 64% ortional to empl17% oymen 4 t — manuf 19% acturing 6 suggests that roughly half of workers who have lost jobs U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, recalled to their previous employer. By August, the number employment (Exhibit 2). a detailed monthly report of the industry, occupation, and demographic characteristics of 17 B Ex et h w ib eien F t 5 se hb or w us t ary a hat w nd J ou rk ner e 2 s a 02 g 0 e, t s 3 h5 t e n o 4 um 4 a ber o nd 4 f 5 to 54 are undocumented. In contrast, a well-documented unemployed workers, and for only 4 percent of lost jobs to share his expertise on employee benefits. He also has As previously discussed, the demographic group is the same. Job losers usually percent of the 152 million workers age 16 and older had ESI, 12. “Charac 1t 3eristics of the Unemployment Insurance Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual include substantial sampling errors, so differences less accounted for 10 percent of prepandemic employment and Transportation & warehouse unemployment recipient 53% s in e wia tc h E h sS ta I h te.av56% e been furloughed o 20% r temporarily l25% aid off Sept. 4, 2020. See Tables A-1, A-10, and A-11. of temporarily laid-off workers had fallen to 6.2 million as u bo nr em e tp hl e b oye ru d w nt o or f E ker SI s i -cn oc v r er ea es d j ed b ob l y 1 o5. ss 9 m es. T ilh lie oy a n. W cce e ous n ti tm ed ate Urban Institute study estimated that, on average from with ESI b Jo eb l cau os se m ses a os s t older w Perce ont rka er ge o s ha f ve MP ed er ic ca er nt e a age s m Soc aide n al andu Em conom erou ics p Sup rp els een met na t t to io the ns f Cu o rr c reno t P nopu gre la sts ion io Su narl s vet ya . ff are disproportionately less experienced and have less 10 A pa B th f ST ro R m l AC oT ss of a job with Claimants,” U.S. De TO parP tm LI en Nt o ES f Labor, Employment and We estimate that, of these newly unemployed workers, m the aa n 5 nin 0g t 0,0 h 0 a0 a t 17 r5 m e no il t c lio o n w nsider orke er d s s a tn ad t tish tiei ca r de lly s pien gn den ifict as h nta . d 12 percent of unemployed workers in June. But because Information 62%and have con 51% tinued to be cover 19% ed by ESI. Estim 30% ating the The characteristics report is b ma a sn ey w d on r or a k n er do s r m s eta u m rn pe le d t s of “ o tc h o ei nt r j ino ub ed c s. B la u im t d au nt rs in ” t g t hah t e e s ac ah m e Pandemic- percentage of workers with of workers for 17 percent to 19 percent of workers who lost jobs, but t A h p ar t a il 2 bo 0u 20 t t 7.o D 7 me ilc lem ion ( b48 er 2 %0 ) o 20 f t , 7 h.e 3 m se w ilo lir o k n w ers l o o rs k t j er os a bs w ndi th their primary coverage. Only 35 percent had coverage and the media. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of 5. Jessica Banthin et al., Changes in Health Insurance education than workers who remain employed during a Training Administration, Aug. 27, 2020. 7.7 million l 2 ost jobs with ESI, and these job losers had 6.9 E H S o I t w o l ev o er ss o , th f h is i es n alth i ot a c nsu orn ac n er ce n with the u statn e d em rap wls d oyu m rin en g t tr h e e w late ee d j k c m o o a b nt nu af in aic nt p g t u rr e h ip e 1 nan g h 9d th of t a es o mic n he o e m f t ont h co e h h v . T e ir h ga e h g s e e c e i st r n ont atie ns o ue w d c f E ho l S la I c io m s o a t j v nt er o sb as ge number of individuals who have lost ESI because of the covFinanc erage.e & insur But if m anc illie ons of workers and their dependents 68% 50% By Jun18% e 2020, as many a 32% s time, the number of permanently laid-off workers increased ISSUE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, most states issued lockdown de 2Ex 2 p p hien er bitc 3 den ent t ts w o 2i 7 p ll ler osc e em ent o p f p loy oer ten -b ta ia sl e ly a d cff ov eer cte ad i ge a nd s a r ivid eu su al lt s from an employer, and some of these workers have retiree Miami. ESI. And because 6.9 million dependents were covered by Coverage Due to the COVID-19 Recession (Urban losses employment own name with ESI recess8 ion, so it is likely that the job losers in each industry are unemployed workers who have filed and been determined eligible for unemployment m ini slu lir o a n de nce c pen haden ractter s w ist h io w cs re er pe c oro ts v, w ere h d b ich a y E rS e b I. A as a r sed o es n u lt, (66%), it accounted for a greater proportion of loss of jobs COVID-19 recession req 7 u .7 m ires e ills it o in w mato er s o ke f t rs h he n ad l um ob ser t is not simple. It follows that Real estate, rental & leasing 42%from 2.6 mill63% ion to 4.1 million, a 19% nd the number o 19% f workers have lost ESI during the pandemic, we would expect orders that clos18 ed many workplaces. The ensuing job losses m 13. A ay h s of S av ee l pte em ft ber 8, 2020, Michigan had not reported for of the recession. Families USA released a related report, (workers plus their dependents) because workers in health coverage through a former employer. benefits, have experienced at least one week of unemployment, and have filed a continued ESI t In h sr to itu u g th a j e, Juo ly 2 b l0 o2 ser 0), a t . otal of 14.6 million individuals and demographic group were disproportionately not Shares of Prepandemic Employment, June Unemployment, Loss of Jobs with Total 15,913,159 10% 51% 5% 1 la 4r .6 m ge si a lm lio p n i len s o di f s vitd au te a als i dm n t io ntia st l ei rat th iv er l e do as tt a j a. ob with ESI or with ESI (18% of lost job jo s w bs w ith E ith e SI a m nd 1 plo 9 y % o er-f p spo ot n en so tia re l E d SI of job losers, the number of job losers with ESI, and the Step Pr h of en A essional/Scientific/T . Woodbury, Phechnical ser .D., is a provic feses sor of economics 58%unemployed f 56% or 15 or more we 17% eks increased from 1 27% .8 the evolution of ESI coverage Exhibit 5 June. Therefore, we use May 2020 claimants for Michigan m inc il rl e ia os n es o d en f w ro o llr m ke en rs w t in C ith O o B u Rt e A ( m Cp on lo sy oe lir h dat e e a d O lth c mo nv ib eu ra s ge. which found that 5.4 million laid-off w co lar im f ker o s b r ue nc ea m m ple o yment benefits in a subsequent week. We refer to these individuals 7 covered by employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI). potentially lost ESI as of June because of the pandemic. If all Exhibit 1 insurance because of the w EManagement of c x er hi e t bh it 3 e co . S ver he ad de re ompanies & enterprises s o pen f P den repa t of a j nde omi b lo c E ser w mp itl h E oyS m I. ent, J 156,047 une Un cove er m ag p e l lo oy sm s w 82% e h n en de t, Lo p sen s o den f Jo ts a 52% bs w re ii n tc h E lude Sd I, a ). n42% d Total number of job losers with ESI whose coverage was not a 6E t M . SI, Oiu ch r fi an ig n ad n S d in t g T a s a to e U lt so m al niv P er iro r so it t r t y a e h n n e e d a s tial stim en la y i to e A r e s o f c f r f oe e nd c ou m tc e e is d d t a , tb y Sele m cit lle io d n t In o 8d .1 m us ilt lir oy n. Although improvements in the labor Management of companies & enterprises 52% as a placeh 49% older for June 2018% 20. 34% simply as unemployed workers or job losers, although they do not include jobless workers during the pandemic will B uu nd in gs eu t R re ed c; h ono cw ilia ev tier on A , thc is r t) c eo p n o tr in t d uo id n us c oo t p ver ro av gi e de a , Affn o rdable Also, the administrative data that are the basis for Shares of Prepandemic Employment, June Unemployment, Loss of Jobs with This is one reason the estimates we obtain of lost jobs COVID-19 pandemic. These these individuals lost ESI coverage, it would represent an G P Ac OA ot ce ommodation & f L n : T tio e ally A stim ffa e tc e h ood ser teo d w m , bvic y S aes n e y w lec o tr e k d In ers ld ou st j sto rb ys that c 3,270,126 ame w co it n h e tin m ue p d b loy y t e 30% r h -eir employer. C25% onsiderable uncer7% tainty who are ineligible for benefits or newly unemployed workers who are eligible. the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. He employment (and increased unemployment) from the market since April have been good news for many laid-off Num Administr beation & suppor r of Unem t/ W pl aste management/ oyed Work 19ers (in millions), January–June 2020 e bs e f tia m r f at re o om s f tt h re n aigu hm tfo brer o war f w d orkers losing ESI. th Ex e L hibi a tb 6or Department’s monthly characteristics C Ea xr hi e A bc it 5 t (A . S CA h ) m are as o rket f P pla rc e e p pa la n n d se , a mi nd M c E em dic p alio dy , a m s w en elt l a , Js u n 39% e Unemploym 63% ent, Loss of J17% obs with ESI, an 20% d Total 14 wi.t Jh E essS ic I c a B ov aer nta hg in a e sh no d J u h l o d b e h a n H le v th p o ie la la w h n e ad a s c n, M o s a v ae n u kr ie np d 6 g S per b e .9 m nse o ou ilf l n io dn . ESI, and Total Potentially Affected, by Age Group 8 per Remediation ser cent reduction i vicn t esotal ESI coverage. surrounds all these estimates. sp Administr onsored i ation & suppor nsurance ( t/W ESIaste management/ ) — by industry, age, and gender — during the researches issues in unemployment, unemployment CPS household survey and the Curren To u t En m dp er lo sty am nd t en hte m onthly c w h o ar rk aer cte sr , a l istia cs re rge m porit n , io t i rs i itm y h po ar s a tant t lrea o k dy l eeo p i st o n m r r inem d th a e i ns at risk 1,344,168 21% 39% 8% report are generally viewed as more reliable than the and will depend on many Potentially Affected, by Age Group Competing Estimated s: T ep h e e C nd O eV nI tD s a -1s 9 R we el ce l.ssion’s Effects an increase in the number of uninsured. Remediation services Shares of Prepandemic Employment, June Unemployment, Loss of Jobs with Educational services 59% 53% 19% 28% Exhibit 1. Number of Unemployed W distino cr tik on b ers ( etw in mi een inliltiio al a nn sd c ), Jo a nt niua nue rd c y– laJiu mn ant e 2 s. W 0h 2 e 0 n a worker is first laid off, he or p in a sn ude ran m ce ic , a . nd nonwage compensation. During 1993 to Statistics (CES) establishment survey. Specifically, of losing ESI. One manifestation of this second limitation is that CPS’s household data, which relies on self-reported Employment Job losses Loss of jobs with ESI Total potentially affected on Health Insurance Coverage (Urban Institute, Aug. unpredictable circumstances. Arts, entertainment & recreation she files an initial claim 626,256 , which establishes a b 19% enefit year lasting f 38% or the next 52 weeks 7% . The Health care & social assistance 54% 57% 19% 24% 1994, Dr. Woodbury was deputy director of the Advisory ESI, for Fan ebru d a rT y t o o J tal un e 2 Po 02 t0 e , t n ht e C ial PS s ly h o A wf s a d fec rt oe p i d n, by Gender using different characteristics (for example, gender The path from loss of a job with ESI to loss of health employment status. The usual practice of the Bureau of 2020). initial claim is filed only once, and the claimant becomes a continued claimant if he or she ME Exhi THO bit 6 DS . S : H he a a rle th i s o n f P sur re an pa ce c nd o e vmi era c E ge d m ap ta w loye m re u enste , J d t un o g e Un ener e am te t ph lo ey ment, Lo s M s o anf J ufo ab ct s w urii ng w th Eo SrIk , a er n s w d T eo re tal Only with time will we know Wholesale trade 521,064 15% 18.5 59% 9% Cou Ar nts, enter cil on Utainment & r nemplo Em ym p en ecr loy t C eation mo em ntpensa J ti o o b n i lon t sse hs e U.S. Loss o 38% f jobs with ESI 65% Total potenti17% ally affected 18% employment of 16.6 million (from 158.8 million to 17.9 rather than industry) can produce somewhat different Labor Statistics (BLS) is to accept answier s es a ligis r ble f ec oo r b rde end ef its and files a co1 nt 7 in .7 ued claim (usually by phone or by logging into the insurance is not simple and depends on three factors: Obtaining Coverage After Loss of ESI most affected by loss of jobs p Pr o o tp en orttiia oln o ly A f w ffec ork ted ers w , by it G h E en SId , b er y various characteristics. Data on Information 380,264 14% 62% 9% how many job losses are Dep Ac ar ct ommodation and f ment of Labor, an ood ser d durivic ng 2 es 014 to 2015, he was 25%15. Ben Zipper 68% er and Josh Biven 15% s, “16.2 Million W 17% orkers 142.2 million) and an increase in unemployment of unemployment insurance agency’s website) every other week. So initial claims represent estimates of the total number of workers who have lost and not reclassify survey responses. An example of the with employer health insurance. The Urban Institute estimates that, during the last three unemployment benefit recipients were used to generate the proportion of Mining 100,036 14% 72% 10% a visiting professor in the economics department at Have Likely Lost Employer-Provided Health Insurance ultiOther ser mately p vic eres (e manx en cept public administr t and ation) the inflow of potential n 33% ew recipients, whe62% reas continued claim 19% s represent the sto19% ck of 12.0 million (from 5.8 million to 17.8 million). The CES • Is the job loss temporary or permanent, and if ESI because of the pandemic. For example, when we use problems raised by self-reports occurred in early 2020, Employment Job losses Loss of jobs with ESI Total potentially affected quarters of 2020, on average only about a third of those workers who lost jobs because of the p cura re n nt dle y e m lii g c ib . W le c e a laim pp ant ly t s w h h e p o hr ao ve b poe re ti n u on n employed for at least one week. PR ri etail tr ncetoade n University. Dr. Woodbury’s work has been 2,093,829 Since the C13% oronavirus Shock B 40% egan,” Working E 5% conomics e Public administr stablishment sation urvey shows a d 31% rop in total nonfarm 73% 50% 20% 31% result in loss of ESI. In the industry classification, we estimate that about 7.4 million temporary, does the employer continue ESI coverage when there was a large increase in the number of people who lose ESI coverage through pandemic-related job loss 20% of workers with ESI to the number of workers who lost jobs to obtain an published in journals such as the American Economic Blog, Economic Policy Institute, May 14, 2020. Other services (except public administration) 861,830 12% 33% 4% Age payroll employment of 14.7 million (from 152.5 19% workers lost jobs with ESI, whereas when we use gender interim, it will be important who were classified as “employed but a M bE sen TH t f OrDS om work.” until the worker is calle2 d b 7%ack to work? 5 27% 27% will become uninsured. About a third will obtain coverage 18% e Rs et v ii m ew a, tJ e o ouf j rn o ab l o s w f La itb h E or E SI c con oo vm eria cg s, e t He h a a lt t w h E e cr o e l no o m st ic . W s, e also determine the Transportation & warehouse 749,608 10% 53% 5% m <22 illion to 137.8 million). For a discussion of why these 11% 88% 8% 4% classiA fib co at ut io t nhe , th C e e om sti m m on ate r we ia se lt s t h F o n und early 8.4 million. BLS determined that many of these workers should have to monitor key labor market 16. Rachel Garfield et al., Eligibility for ACA Health Coverage We use the CPS and Labor Department data together to estimate the number of workers through another family member’s ESI, just over a quarter 55% 15% 15% National Tax Journal, and Labour Economics. He earned number of dependents of these workers who potentially lost coverage. 23% • Manuf eT st o w im acturing a h ta et e s d x it ff en ert w , see T ill t o em ma p z C ora ar jn y l er e ayo t a ffl s w ., Re it c h oo nc ut l ilio ns gs o f 1,588,498 The miss 10% ion of the Common 53% 66% wealth Fund is t 7% o 22–24 53% 31%(These are th 86% 2 e l 2% owest and high 9% est estimates we o 5%btain.) and their dependents who lost jobs with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) following the been classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff,” Following Job Loss (Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 14% statistics, including the 14% 21% 51% will become covered by Medicaid or the Children’s Health 49% 21% 21% his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Wisconsin– 13% promote a high-performing health care system Unemployment Claims w 12% ith Job Losse w s i an t ve of u he F n ie rs m t ployment that started during t 47% he week ending March 14. We first use the CPS 25–34 47% 12% 56% 69% 13% 17% Health car ESI bec e & social assistanc ome permanent la eyoffs with loss of E1 S9 I? % 1,902,743 Because of thi9% s limitation, we u 54% se the average es5% timate in which case the unemployment rate would have been May 13, 2020). 19% 45% 11% 11% K nu Em Y F ber o INDIN f wo GrS k A erND s on CONCLUSION: We estimate that as maI n n y a sur sa nce Program (CHIP), and a small percentage will 10% Madison in 1981. to generate the proportion of workers and dependents with ESI in March 2019, by industry, 10% that achieves better access, improved quality, and Months of the COVID-19 Crisis, Finance and Economics 17% 10% 35–44 55%across the va 43% riables e 17% xamined i 15% n this brief. 43% 1R p eal estate, r ercentage p ental & leasing oint higher. 9% 250,667 8% 42% 3% 17% 16% 16% obtain nongroup insurance. This implies that, even for 7.7 million workers lost jobs with ESI a age s o , an f J d g un en e 2 de0 r. W 20 b e as es c u a m ue t se o hat t f t h h e l ei kelihood of having ESI in March 2020 was the same as furlough or temporary layoff 17. Healt8% h Management Associates, COVID-19 Impact on greater efficiency, particularly for society’s most • When workers do lose ESI, either at the time of layoff Discussion Series 2020-055 (Board of Governors of the 14% 7% 45–54 57% 45% 20% 36% Construction 499,501 5% 41% 7% 2% it was in March 2019. We then estimate the number of workers who lost jobs by comparing those who lose ESI following the loss of a job with ESI, only pandemic-induced recession. The ESI of these workers covered 6.9 million Mv eu di lne caird ab , M lea , r incl ketud pla in ce g, a lo n w d t -inc he U ome nin pe sur op ed le , b , t y S he ta te w Lih ke a o bn ey em come p pirer icm al a an n en aly t sis, this one has limitations, 12% or when a temporary layoff becomes permanent, Federal Reserve System, July 2020). 55–59 60% 53% 28% 19% the Labor Department’s monthl 5% y characteristics repo 5%rts for February and June, by the same Professional/Scientific/Technical services 568,875 4% 5% 4% 58% 3% a m Com inp oa rir ti y w son ils l l w osie h the O al t the h cr o S ver tu ad ge ie . s 4% (H u M nin A, A sup re ri d l 3 , a , 2 nd 02 pe 0).ople of color. Support for this 4% of their dependents, for a total of 14.6 million affected individuals. Only 3% and two are worth emphasizing. First, it has long been 3% 3% job losers, and the number 2.2 2.1 2.0 how many will obtain coverage thro cu ha grh o actt eh rier f stica s. W mi e a ly pply the proportion of workers with ESI to the number of workers who 60–64 60% 58% 32% 11% Educational services 635,515 4% 59% 3% 7. These estimates do not include anyone who took research was provided by the Commonwealth Fund. 7% w kn io th t wn t im h e w at ti a lk l w e-u e k p o nf u ow h nem ow m ploya m n en y jt i ob l nso ur sa se ns a ce i re u s ltimatelA r y pe ec ren mt U ane rb na t,n I nstitute article has reviewed and lost jobs to obtain an estimate of the number of workers who lost a job with ESI. 7% of job losers who have been All three of these factors involve much uncerta 6% inty, and any 18. Banthin et al., Changes in Health, 2020. members, COBRA, the ACA marketplace, or Medicaid? 65+ 35% 63% 32% 4% Health care & Retail trade Manufacturing Educational services Prof/Scientific/Tech Accommodation & Construction Public administration 176,062 2% 73% 2% The views presented here are those of the authors COBRA. We expect COBRA take-up to be very small 5% incomplete — many job losers who could receive benefits reconciled the wide range of estimates from recen 4%t resulting in loss of ESI for workers and their dependents. social assistance services food services Finally, for each worker with health insurance, we determine the number of dependents estimate of losses of ESI or any health insurance coverage unemployed for 15 weeks or 3% Gender and not necessarily those of the Commonwealth Finance & insurance 166,478 2% 68% 2% at this point. The CARES Act, passed in March 2020, 19. Stan Dorn, The COVID-19 Pandemic and Resulting do not claim them. This is usually because they believe studies of the relationship between the COVID-19 who were covered by the ESI of a worker who lost a job with ESI. We do this by examining January February March April May June We examine these factors in more detail in the following resulting from the pandemic recession must be understood more and are unlikely to be Male 53% Fund or 52% its directors, offi19% cers, or staff. 29% Notes: These industries account for 66% of employment prepandemic, and 69% of postpandemic job losses. ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. Utilities extended the time period for COBRA elections. 15,432 Economic C1% rash Have C 14 ause76% d the Greatest Hea 1% lth whether the worker had employee-only, employee-plus-one, or family coverage. Among they will b <25 e reemployed qu25 ick –ly 34 , and the time-c 35 os –t 44 s of reces45 sio –n a 54 nd ESI losses. 55 A –c 64 cordingly, we dis65+ cuss these Notes: These industries account for 66% of employment prepandemic, and 69% of postpandemic job losses. ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. ND oa tta e: U : Au n th eo m rsp ’ alna oy ly e sd w is ofo sr ta kte er -lev s a el re d unemp efin lo ey d a men s i t n in d si u v ra id nu ce c als w laims ho h , U.S a . v De fi epalrt emen d an t d b of Le ab eo n d r, Ee mp te lo rm ymen ine td e , and li g Tra ibil n e f ing o A r u dmi nn eim strp ati lo oy nm ; and en th t b e e 2n 01 e 9 fi Annu ts, ha alv Se e ocia xlp ae nd ri E ec n oc no ed a mict l Su ep a p s le t o me n nt e to sections. Male as provisional. Female atta Fc emale hed to an employer and 49% 59% 19% 22% workers with family coverage, the average family size was 3.89 individuals. the C Sp urren ecti P fi oc pa ula lt ly ion , q Su u rva ey l.i fi ed individuals have until 60 days Insurance Losses in American History (Families USA, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting 6,160 0% 27% 0% week of unemployment, and have filed a “continued claim” for unemployment benefits in a subsequent week. claiming outweigh the benefits. We believe this is not earlier studies only briefly. Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual W.E. Note: ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. c Soc ov ia al er ft and e er t d b Eh cy E onom e en SId o . ic Su f t ph ple n eme a n tti t o on ta he l em Currer eng t P en opu cy t lato e ion Su lec rt C vey.OBRA July 2020). Data: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Office of Unemployment Insurance, ETA 203 – Characteristics of the Insured UPJOHN Data: Authors’ analysis of the 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. N Da ota te: : U Au nth emp orslo ’ a y na ed ly w sio s o rkf ers sta a te re d -lev ef el inu ed nemp as in lo dy iv men iduat ls i n w sh uo ra h na cv e c e fla iled ims a,n U d. b S.een Dep d aet rtmen ermit n o ed f L eli ab g o ib r,le Emp for u lon ymen empt lo , y amen nd Tra t b in en inef g A its d,mi ha n ve istr ex ati po eri nen ; and ced th a e t lea 201 st 9 o Annu ne wa eek l So o cfi u al n aemp nd Elo co yno men mit c , a Sn ud p h pla ev m e e fnt iled to a Note: ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. Source: Paul Fronstin and Stephen A. Woodbury, How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the Pandemic? Note: ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance. Unemployed (DOL, n.d.). “ th co e C ntu in rren uedt c P la oip m” ula ft o io r u n n Semp urvey lo . y ment benefits in a subsequent week. Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual (Commonwealth Fund, Oct. 2020). Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training AdministINSTITUTE ration; and the 2019 Annual Data: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Office of Unemployment Insurance, ETA 203 – Characteristics of the Insured Unemployed (DOL, n.d.). Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Source: Paul Fronstin and Stephen A. Woodbury, How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the Pandemic? Data: Authors’ analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims, U.S. Department of Labor, Employment, and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to (Commonwealth Fund, Oct. 2020). Source: Paul Fronstin and Stephen A. Woodbury, How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the Pandemic? the Current Population Survey. c c c c c c c c c c c common ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommon ommonw w w w w w w w w w w weal eal eal eal eal eal eal eal eal eal eal ealt t t t t t t t t t t th h h h h h h h h h h hf f f f f f f f f f f fu u u u u u u u u u u und nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd............or or or or or or or or or or or org g g g g g g g g g g g I I I I I I I I I I I Is s s s s s s s s s s ss s s s s s s s s s s su u u u u u u u u u u ue B e B e B e B e B e B e B e B e B e B e B e Br r r r r r r r r r r ri i i i i i i i i i i ie e e e e e e e e e e ef, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, O f, Oc c c c c c c c c c c ct t t t t t t t t t t to o o o o o o o o o o ob b b b b b b b b b b be e e e e e e e e e e er 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Commonwealth Fund, Oct. 2020). Source: Paul Fronstin and Stephen A. Woodbury, How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the Pandemic? (Commonwealth Fund, Oct. 2020).