Figure 4 Percentage of Workers With ESI in Own Name, Selected Industry 70% 66% Conclusion Figure 1 ESI Co verage Loss by Industry 59% 58% Number of Unemployed Workers, January –June 2020 60% 54% The path from loss of a job with ESI to loss of health insurance is not simple. It follows that the evolution of ESI 51% Th e seven industries shown in Figure 3 accounted for two-thirds of pre-pandemic employment, 69 percent of coverage during the pandemic will be far from straightforward and will depend on many unpredictable 50% Millions October 29, 2020, #366 un employed workers in June, and 68 percent of lost jobs with ESI. The disparities among these industries in total circumstances. Only with time will we know how many job losses are ultimately permanent and result in loss of 20 41% 40% 18.5 17.9 job loss vs. loss of jobs with ESI are striking. For example, total job losses in manufacturing were roughly ESI. In the interim, it will be important to monitor key labor market statistics, including the number of workers on 40% 17.7 18 pr oportional to employment — manufacturing accounted for 10 percent of pre-pandemic employment and 12 furlough or temporary layoff whose unemployment becomes permanent and the number of workers experiencing 16 percent of unemployed workers in June. But because manufacturing has one of the highest rates of ESI coverage job loss wh 30 o have b % een unemployed for 15 weeks or more and are unlikely to be attached to an employer and Loss of Jobs With Employment-Based Health Coverage 25% (66 percent) (Figure 4), it accounted for a greater proportion of loss of jobs with ESI (18 percent of lost jobs with covered by 14ESI. 20% ESI and 19 percent of potential ESI coverage loss when dependents are included). 12 During the Pandemic The report, “How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the Pandemic?,” was 10 10% In contrast, job losses in accommodation and food services were far out of proportion to employment. Although published as the October 2020 EBRI Issue Brief in collaboration with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, most states imposed lockdown orders that closed many workplaces and 8 accounting for only 7 percent of pre-pandemic employment, 20 percent of unemployed workers in June were Research. dramatically slowed U.S. economic activity in the spring of 2020. The result was a massive increase in 0% former accom 6 modation and food service workers. But because only 25 percent of these workers had ESI pre- unemployment. During the 15 weeks from mid-March to the end of June, Americans filed nearly 49 million new pan demic, they accounted for only 11 percent of lost jobs with ESI and 10 percent of potential ESI coverage loss The study was made possible with funding support from The Commonwealth Fund. 4 claims for unemployment benefits. 2.2 2.1 2.0 when dependents are included. 2 The Employee Benefit Research Institute is a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit research institute based in The strong link between employment and health insurance coverage has important implications for Americans’ 0 Similarly, retail trade accounted for 10 percent of pre-pandemic employment and 14 percent of unemployed Washington, DC, that focuses on health, savings, retirement, and economic security issues. EBRI does not lobby January February March April May June insurance coverage and access to health care during the pandemic. Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) is workers in June. But because only 40 percent of workers in retail trade had ESI pre-pandemic, these workers and does not take policy positions. The work of EBRI is made possible by funding from its members and the most common form of health insurance in the United States. In March 2019, 69 percent of the 152 million accounted for only 12 percent of lost jobs with ESI and 11 percent of potential ESI coverage loss including sponsors, which include a broad range of public, private, for-profit and nonprofit organizations. For more workers ages 16 and older had ESI, meaning that 175 million workers and their dependents had coverage. If Note: Unemployed workers are defined as individuals who have filed and been determined eligible for unemployment benefits, have Notes: These industries account for 66 percent of employment pre-pandemic and 69 percent of post-pandemic job losses. ESI = employer-sponsored dependents. information go to www.ebri.org or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn. experienced at least one week of unemployment, and have filed a “continued claim” for unemployment benefits in a subsequent week. millions of workers and their dependents have lost ESI during the pandemic, we would expect increased health insurance. Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration’s (ETA) Office of Unemployment Insurance, ETA 203 – Source: Authors' analysis of 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. enrollment in Con Charac soli terisdated Om tics of the Insured nibu Unem s Bud ployed,get https://o Rec ui.do on leta ciliatio .gov/dmstrn eeAct /hand bo (COBRA oks/401/iv_4.) pdcon f tinuous coverage, Affordable Care ### Act (ACA) marketplace plans, and Medicaid, as well as an increase in the number of uninsured. ESI Coverage Loss by Age The path from loss of a job with ESI to loss of health insurance is not simple and depends on three factors: Figure 3 Figure 5 shows that workers ages 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 bore the brunt of ESI-covered job losses. They accounted Impacts by Selected Industry for 19 percent and 17 percent, respectively, of workers who lost jobs. But because workers in these age groups • Is the job loss temporary or permanent, and if temporary, does the employer continue ESI coverage until Proportion of Pre-Pandemic Employment Proportion of Unemployed Workers Loss of Jobs With ESI Total Potentially Impacted by ESI Loss Figure 2 were the most likely to be covering spouses and other dependents, they accounted for 27 percent and 22 percent, the worker is called back to work? Summary of Findings respectively, of the total potentially impacted by ESI loss. In contrast, workers younger than age 25 and ages 65 • To what extent will temporary layoffs without loss of ESI become permanent layoffs with loss of ESI? Number of workers employed pre-pandemic, February and older acc 25%ounted for disproportionately small shares of the total potentially impacted by ESI loss because of • When workers do lose ESI, either at the time of layoff or when a temporary layoff becomes permanent, their relatively low rates of ESI coverage. 2020 151.7 million how many will obtain coverage through other family members, COBRA, the ACA marketplace, or 20% Figure 5 Number of unemployed workers, June 2020 17.9 million 20% Medicaid? 19% Impacts by Age Group 18% Number of unemployed workers due to pandemic, June Proportion of Pre-Pandemic Employment Proportion of Unemployed Workers Loss of Jobs With ESI Total Potentially Impacted by ESI Loss 2020 15%15% All three of these factors involve considerable uncertainty, and any estimate of losse1 s o 5.9 f ESI mil lior on of any health 15% 14% 14% insurance coverage resulting from the pandemic-driven recession must be understood as provisional. Unemployed workers as a % of pre-pandemic 13% 12% 12% 35% 11% 11% employment 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% In a recent report, “How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs with Employer Health Coverage During the 31% Number of workers who lost jobs with ESI, February- 8% 30% 7% Pandemic?,” the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) used a combination of health insurance coverage 7% June average 27% 7.7 million 27% 27% data and state-level data on the characteristics of unemployment benefit recipients to estimate how many workers 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% Number of dependents covered by lost jobs with ESI, 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% have lost jobs with ESI following the recent surge of unemployment. We also examined how many of these 25% 23% 22% February-June average 6.9 million workers’ dependents may have lost coverage. 21% 21% 21% 19% 0% Total affected by jobs lost with ESI (workers19% and 20% Health Care & Social Retail Trade Manufacturing Educational Services Prof./Scientific/Tech. Accommodation and Construction 17% 17% Overall ESI Coverage Loss Assistance 17% Servs. Food Servs dependents, February-June average 14.6 million 16% 16% 14% 15% Note: ESI = employer-sponsored health insurance Notes: These industries account for 66 percent of employment pre-pandemic and 69 percent of post-pandemic job losses. ESI = employer-sponsored 12% Between February 2020 and June 2020, the number of unemployed individuals increased by 15.9 million, from health insurance. Source: Authors' analysis of state-level unemployment insurance Source: Authors' analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims; U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2.0 million to 17.9 million (Figure 1). This is a reasonable estimate of the job loss resulting from the pandemic, 10% 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. claims; U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training 7% and it represents 10 percent of pre-pandemic employment (Figure 2). 7% 6% Administration; and the 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement 5% 4% 5% 3% We estimate that, o to f th the e se Cnewly urren tun Po em pu pl la oy tio ed n work Surver ey s., 7 .7 million lost jobs with ESI, and these workers experiencing job loss were responsible for 6.9 million dependents who were covered by their ESI. As a result, 0% Younger Than 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and Older 14.6 million individuals in total either lost a job with ESI or were the covered dependent of a worker experiencing job loss. Source: Authors' analysis of state-level unemployment insurance claims; U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; and the 2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. EBRI’s on Twitter! @EBRI or http://twitter.com/EBRI EBRI blog: https://ebriorg.wordpress.com/ E E E EBRI BRI BRI BRI o o o on n n n T T T Tw w w wi i i it t t tt t t ter: er: er: er: @ @ @ @E E E EBRI BRI BRI BRI o o o or r r r h h h ht t t tt t t tp p p p: : : :/ / / // / / /t t t tw w w wi i i it t t tt t t ter er er er.com .com .com .com/ / / /E E E EB B B BRI RI RI RI Bl Bl Bl Blo o o og g g g: : : : h h h ht t t tt t t tp p p ps s s s: : : :/ / / // / / /e e e eb b b br r r ri i i io o o or r r rg g g g....w w w wo o o or r r rd d d dp p p pres res res ress s s s.co .co .co .com/ m/ m/ m/ © 20 20, Employee Benefit Research Insti tute, 901 D St. SW, Suite 802, Washington, DC 20024, 202/659-0670 www.ebri.org 3 2 4 5