Summary
The research in this EBRI Issue Brief explores the aggregate potential impact of the 2020 market crisis as well as assumptions with respect to future employee and employer behavior in response to the current situation and potential decreases in defined contribution eligibility arising from increased unemployment. The combined impact of all intermediate assumptions (including the investment losses already experienced in the first quarter of 2020) certainly appears to be manageable: The $3.68 trillion aggregate deficit for all U.S. households ages 35–64 as of January 1, 2020, only increased 4.5 percent or $166.21 billion. Even the combination of pessimistic assumptions in this analysis only increased the aggregate retirement deficits by 11.2 percent or $412.77 billion.
Of course, the crisis could result in unexpectedly worse outcomes — market losses could be even greater, plan terminations more common, etc. Further, this analysis is not meant to minimize the potential impact of the current situation on specific individuals who are most affected. A future EBRI Issue Brief will focus on the latter. Another EBRI Issue Brief will analyze the impact of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act on retirement income adequacy, factoring in the potential ability of affected workers to take much bigger loans and withdrawals than they could even during the 2007–2009 financial crisis.
Our analysis finds:
- Market volatility may be the largest factor during this crisis in increasing retirement savings shortfalls and decreasing savings surpluses, especially in a worst-case scenario.
- However, for the youngest workers, permanent termination of the defined contribution (DC) plans under $10 million in assets could have a large impact.
- Match suspensions by plan sponsors, contribution suspensions by workers, increases in withdrawals, and decreased eligibility do not have as much impact when spread over all U.S. households. (However, they may have a significant influence on those impacted by these factors.)